Scenario
A game show features N closed doors. Behind exactly 1 door is a car; behind the other N−1 doors are goats. The contestant chooses an initial door. The host, who knows the location of the car, opens K doors (1≤K≤N−2) from the unchosen doors, revealing goats. The host then offers the contestant the choice to switch to one of the remaining unopened doors.
Your Task
- Using conditional probability and Bayes' Theorem, derive the exact win probability if the contestant stays with their original choice (P(Stay)).
- Derive the exact win probability if the contestant switches to a randomly selected remaining unopened door (P(Switch)).
- Compute both probabilities for the classic game (N=3,K=1) and an extended game (N=10,K=7).
Constraints
- Host never reveals the car and never opens the contestant's door.
- K≤N−2.
Examples
In classic Monty Hall (N=3,K=1), P(Stay)=1/3 and P(Switch)=2/3.